How Dr. Paul Helps Texas Owners Forecast the Boom That Reaches Them

A statewide growth story does not pay your rent. The local trend that sends customers to your door does. Here is how Dr. Paul builds a plan around that trend.

  • Your region goes first. Metroplex service firms start from the Dallas Regional Chamber’s headquarters relocation list. San Antonio contractors start from Port San Antonio and Joint Base buyers. El Paso carriers start from Juarez twin-plant freight.
  • A low case for every boom. Permian rig counts and Golden Triangle refinery contracts rise and fall. Your forecast shows the slow year next to the good one, so the bank sees you survive both.
  • Texas Small Business Credit Initiative (TSBCI) requests, packaged for the bank. The program runs through approved banks under the Office of the Governor. Your plan gives that banker a file worth sending.
  • Each city program’s rules, answered. Austin’s Family Business Loan Program counts jobs. Fort Worth’s Small Business Enterprise certification opens city bids. Your plan names the rule and shows you meet it.
  • Licensed trades on the opening calendar. Electricians, HVAC contractors and other trades licensed by the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation need that license before the first paid job. Your timeline shows when the license lands and when paying work can start.
  • A market analysis in hand for your first advising session. Dr. Paul’s market analysis lesson shows how to build one. The Small Business Development Center (SBDC) networks hosted by the University of Houston, UTSA, Dallas College and Texas Tech can then review it with you at no cost.
Dr. Paul’s Insight

Texas plans fail most often by quoting the state’s growth instead of the owner’s market. A Lubbock shop does not sell to a Metroplex relocation, and a Valley caterer does not sell to a chip fab. Dr. Paul wants the forecast to name the customers within driving distance of the door and count them.

Real work in Texas: In 2024, Dr. Paul built an SBA-ready business plan for an assisted living home in Texas.

Pick Your Path to a Plan That Fits Your Corner of Texas

A Texas plan works when it reads like your region wrote it. Choose the route that fits your time, your budget and how much of the work you want to own.

Business Consulting

Weighing a price change, a new hire or a second location? Dr. Paul gives Texas owners a second set of eyes before the cash is spent.

See consulting options →

Business Plan Templates

Rather write it yourself? An industry template gives you the plan in Word and the numbers in Excel. Swap the sample rents for what your Houston, Austin or Lubbock landlord actually quotes.

Browse templates →

Small Business Education

Want to defend a Texas forecast line by line on your own? Start with Dr. Paul’s market sizing and cash planning lessons, then add the videos and the Fabled Forest Business School books.

Start learning →

From Houston to Corpus Christi, a Different Plan Problem in Each City

A Houston service yard and a Fort Worth boutique both sit in Texas. They share almost nothing else. Each city below has its own buyers, its own busy season and its own question a lender will ask.

CityWhat Drives DemandThe Plan Question
HoustonEnergy operators along the Katy Freeway, the Texas Medical Center, Rodeo crowds at NRG ParkHow much revenue is maintenance and how much is drilling?
DallasState Fair crowds at Fair Park, Texas-OU weekend, Deep Ellum and Klyde Warren Park lunch trafficDoes Fair season pay for a second fryer?
AustinChip and tech employers from The Domain to East Austin, ACL Fest weekends in Zilker ParkHow much from the bank, how much from the Family Business Loan?
San AntonioPort San Antonio tenants, Joint Base San Antonio, the Medical CenterWhich contracting office signs first?
El PasoJuarez twin plants, Eastside warehouses, Fort BlissHow long does a border run really take?
Fort WorthStock Show crowds at Will Rogers, Stockyards visitors, West 7th shoppersHow much stock before the Stock Show opens?
Corpus ChristiThe Corpus Christi Army Depot, port and refinery work across the Coastal BendWhich depot repair lines can you supply?
HoustonIndustry

Energy service firms run yards and offices along the Katy Freeway and the Beltway, selling field and maintenance work to Houston operators.

“How should a Houston oilfield services startup show revenue when crude prices swing?”

The Plan FixSplit revenue from Katy Freeway operators into maintenance contracts that run at almost any crude price and drilling work that stops when prices fall. Then size the crew and the Beltway yard to the maintenance side.

DallasEvent

The State Fair of Texas runs for weeks at Fair Park each fall. Texas-OU weekend at the Cotton Bowl brings one of the Fair’s biggest crowds.

“Can a Dallas food truck count on State Fair season?”

The Plan FixPrice the Fair Park vendor contract with its fees, commissary hours and extra crew. Buy the second fryer only if State Fair margin pays it back, and let Deep Ellum lunch stops set the staffing plan for the rest of the year.

AustinFunding Question

The City of Austin Family Business Loan Program adds gap financing behind a bank loan for job-creating firms from East Austin to The Domain.

“How does the Austin Family Business Loan Program change my funding request?”

The Plan FixSplit the ask between the bank loan and the city’s gap piece, count the jobs the program wants created, and price East Side rent into the cost base.

San AntonioIndustry

Port San Antonio, the old Kelly Air Force Base, is home to aerospace and cybersecurity tenants. Contracting offices across Joint Base San Antonio round out the buyer list.

“Who buys from a cybersecurity startup near Port San Antonio?”

The Plan FixSize the market from Port San Antonio tenants and the contracting offices at Joint Base San Antonio. Then build clearance delays into the hiring timeline, because a cleared hire can take months to start.

El PasoIndustry

Twin-plant freight moves between Ciudad Juarez factories and Eastside warehouses along I-10 and Loop 375. That cross-border traffic keeps local carriers busy.

“What should an El Paso trucking plan show about cross-border freight?”

The Plan FixPrice each Juarez run with port-of-entry wait time counted in driver hours. Use Fort Bliss local hauling to fill the gaps between plant loads.

Fort WorthEvent

The Fort Worth Stock Show & Rodeo runs for weeks at Dickies Arena and Will Rogers Memorial Center, steps from West 7th and the Cultural District.

“How much stock should a Fort Worth western wear boutique carry into Stock Show season?”

The Plan FixOrder boots and hats to land before the January Stock Show opens at Will Rogers and sell through by early February. Set the rest of the year on Stockyards and Camp Bowie foot traffic.

Corpus ChristiIndustry

The Corpus Christi Army Depot at NAS Corpus Christi repairs Army helicopters, with suppliers and crews living in Flour Bluff and along SPID.

“What does a Corpus Christi aviation parts supplier need to show to win Army Depot work?”

The Plan FixName the depot repair lines you can supply and staff from Flour Bluff and the Southside. Keep port and refinery fabrication jobs across the Coastal Bend as a backup customer group.

Expanding next door? The plan math shifts by state, so compare the pages for Oklahoma, Louisiana, and New Mexico.

Texas Banks, Programs and Agencies to Know

Texas is big enough to have several SBA offices and a long list of city programs. Find your reader before you write a word.

SBA Lending

SBA District Offices

Texas has several: Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, the Lower Rio Grande Valley, and a West Texas office covering El Paso and Lubbock. Find the one that covers your county.

State Programs

Texas Small Business Credit Initiative

TSBCI is run by Texas Economic Development & Tourism in the Office of the Governor and works through approved banks. Ask your banker whether they take part.

City Programs

Austin, San Antonio and Fort Worth

Austin’s Family Business Loan Program adds gap financing for job creators. San Antonio partners with LiftFund on small business loans. Fort Worth certifies Small Business Enterprises for city bids.

Free Help

Texas SBDC Networks

Four regional networks, hosted by the University of Houston, UTSA, Dallas College and Texas Tech, cover the state.

Registration

Texas Secretary of State

LLCs and corporations file a certificate of formation through SOSDirect. Sole owners using a business name file an assumed name certificate with the county clerk.

Local License

TDLR, City and County

Texas skips a general business license. Many trades answer to the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation instead, and cities and counties add their own permits.

A Book for Texas Founders Chasing the Next Boom

Top 5 Common Mistakes Entrepreneurs MakeDr. Paul’s Fabled ForestTop 5 Common Mistakes Entrepreneurs Make book cover, Dr. Paul's Fabled Forest

Dr. Paul’s Fabled Forest

Top 5 Common Mistakes Entrepreneurs Make

Every Texas boom pulls in first-time founders who repeat the same early errors. The five covered here are the ones that cost them most. Each of the five mistakes plays out in a short Fabled Forest story, followed by the plain business lesson an owner can use the same week.

The forest is growing fast, but not every path grows with it. Count the travelers who walk past your door, not the ones you only hear about.

Doctor Owl, Dr. Paul’s Fabled Forest Business School
Get the Book on Amazon →

Texas Tips From Dr. Paul, on Video

One lesson is for owners statewide, and one is a quick Houston tip. Watch both before the plan goes to your bank.

Business Plan Writer Tips for Texas BusinessDr. Paul’s longer lesson for Texas owners who are about to put a plan in front of a lender.

Houston Tip #6A quick business plan tip Dr. Paul recorded for Houston owners.

What Texas Owners Ask Before They Apply

Will a TSBCI participating bank want collateral details my Texas SBA lender skipped?
Often, yes. TSBCI works through approved banks, and each bank still underwrites under its own rules. Expect a request for every asset behind the loan: equipment, vehicles, real estate and any personal guarantee. Your plan should list each asset, what it is worth and how the loan money adds to it, so the banker never has to chase you for it.
How much cash should a Galveston shop hold back for hurricane season closures?
Enough to cover rent, payroll and loan payments for the weeks your doors could be closed. Hurricane season on the Gulf runs from June through November, so build the cushion before summer and leave it alone. Galveston owners should also plan for slow weeks after a storm, when visitors stay away even after the shop reopens. A cash reserve lesson and a monthly forecast make that number easy to defend.
Can a Midland hot shot outfit plan around rig counts in the Permian Basin?
Yes, and a Midland lender will expect it. Build revenue on loads per week, tie those loads to rig activity across the Permian Basin, and show a slow case where the rigs drop off. Truck payments, fuel and insurance have to clear in that slow case too. The trucking template already has the load, mileage and cost lines, so you swap in your own runs and rates.
How does Dr. Paul handle a Rio Grande Valley plan without meeting in McAllen?
By phone, video call and email, the same way he serves owners in every state. You send your numbers and documents, Dr. Paul writes the drafts, and you review every draft before it goes to the lender. Valley owners also have an SBA district office of their own, the Lower Rio Grande Valley office, so the plan can be aimed at the lenders working that market.

Dr. Paul Borosky, DBA, MBA

Business Plan Writer, Consultant & Author | 14+ Years | 1,000+ Clients Served

DBA, National UniversityMBA, Focus in Finance, Webster University

Dr. Paul Borosky, DBA, MBA is the founder of Quality Business Plan. He writes business plans and financial projections for owners across the United States and Canada, works remotely with clients in every state, and has written plans behind more than $100M in funded projects. He is the author of the Dr. Paul’s Fabled Forest Business School series and has published over 1,000 business videos on YouTube. He has taught as an adjunct college instructor and teaches in Florida public schools.

14+Years Experience
1,000+Clients Served
$100M+Projects Funded
1,000+YouTube Videos

This page is for general educational purposes only. It is not legal, lending, or financial advice. Program rules, loan sizes and local requirements change, so confirm them with the program or agency before you apply. The Fabled Forest and its characters are fictional.